Can freshman Riley Kugel be a first rounder?
Riley Kugel:
Guard | Florida
Height: 6'5 | Weight: 205 lbs
Wingspan: 6’8
2023 Draft Age: 19.5
Before the season:
Entering the season Riley Kugel came in as a very late riser in the HS scene, Kugel played his senior season at Dr. Phillips a pretty high-level public school that also featured two other top 100 commits. Kugel jumped into the 50s in the last half of his HS tenure after averaging 19.5 PPG. Kugel then committed to the Gators in May of 2022 but would arrive on campus in August being one of the last commits of the 2022 HS class. There was a very real buzz in practices indicating Kugel would start day one as he was outplaying everyone in practice the moment he entered the facility, however, Kugel ended up starting the season as a bench piece.
Kugels HS highlights:
Early season struggles:
Kugel did not start the season looking that good, he ended up averaging 5.7 PPG on 44% TS in his first 9 games while only playing 15 MPG. This was more so Riley never finding his groove in these games, hard for shotmakers to get going when they have no rhythm or confidence and Kugel could not find that in some games as he only played under 9 minutes. Most of the shots Kugel missed for some of the easiest looks possible whether it be open 3s or wide-open layups, Kugel really never found that spark and it took time for him to get going.
https://streamable.com/esvd5n
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End-of-season rise:
Kugel ended up taking the NBA draft world storm in his last month or so while he showcased his elite scoring arsenal while also being really efficient
In his last 11 games, Kugel averaged:
17.3 PPG
3.6 RPG
1.3 APG
50% FG
40% 3PT(5 att)
66% FT
In this stretch what really put him in this convo for a late first-round guy was really just the amount of high-level shots he was taking and making at an elite rate. Kugel showcased a 3-level scoring ability that is essential for combo guards in today’s league. There were issues as a playmaker and if were to handle the ball in the league he will have to refine that part of his game and look for his trailing teammates.
Total stats per synergy:
Scouts take:
I asked 2 NBA scouts, director of scouting for Draft express, and agents for their thoughts on Riley Kugel:
“Florida’s Riley Kugel is a notable late-season riser in scouting circles. While his stats don’t jump off the page at first glance, he showed tangible improvement and blossomed into a go-to scorer over the final month of the season. There’s certainly something to like about him as a tough, physical, strong-framed off-guard shot-creator, but still has some work to do to polish up his overall game. His draft range among scouts is wide-ranging at the moment. If he tests the 2023 NBA Draft waters, he seems likely to be invited to Chicago as at least a G League Elite Camp invite. This platform would provide him with a great opportunity to make his case for scouts. For the time being, Kugel seems more likely to be a 2024 NBA Draft candidate but you certainly can’t rule out the possibility of him making a 2023 push with a strong pre-draft showing” - Jon Chepkevich(Draft Express)
“Riley Kugel can be a first-rounder but it’s really up to how his off-season goes. He’s really comparable to Bryce Mcgowens in last year’s draft where you look at a freshman who can score at all 3 levels but still needed a big off-season and in Mcgowens he didn’t. Kugel’s best bet is participating in the NBA draft combine and taking all workouts he can get. This kid can play, he’s someone we want to work out and what he’s shown this year is a borderline first-rounder but he is still a risky first-rounder to bet on”- Anonymous NBA scout
“Kugel has been one the fastest stock risers out of all freshmen in the past month, with strong workouts he could go as high as the 20s”- Anonymous NBA scout
“He's a win-win client. Low buzz but high alert on draft radars. Could probably turn himself into a lottery lock going back to school”- Agent from Lift Sports
Outlook:
Riley kugel will declare for the 2023 draft while keeping his college eligibility. Kugel has not yet signed with an agency he has garnered high-level interest from some of the biggest agencies in the world such as Klutch for an example.
Here are key dates on which to keep an eye once Kugel signs with an agent.
NBA early entry deadline: The early entry deadline for underclassmen wishing to declare for the draft: is April 23.
G League Elite Camp: A three-day event that gives draft prospects an opportunity to showcase their skills in front of scouts, coaches, and front-office executives. A select number of players from the draft-eligible group will be invited to participate in the NBA Draft Combine later on in the week based on their performance in the NBA G League Elite Camp. May 13-14 in Chicago.
NBA Draft Combine: About 75 players will be invited to the combine. Then the
players have interviews with NBA teams and participate in five-on-five games as well as shooting and strength and agility drills. Kugel is likely to be invited. May 15-21 in Chicago.
NBA Pro day: Pro Days are when many top agencies invite every team to see players work out in a private setting. This event quickly has become a vital part of the evaluation process and will also take place at the combine depending If Kugel’s agency attends. Kugel will still get invited to team workouts before and after this as well. Date varies
NBA Draft Lottery: The teams that missed the playoffs the previous year participate in a lottery process to determine the draft order. May 16 in Chicago.
NCAA early entry withdrawal deadline: The early entry withdrawal deadline for underclassmen who wish to maintain their collegiate eligibility, is set by the NCAA. Kugel can end up returning back to college basketball if that’s his choice May 31.
The NBA draft is on June 22 in Brooklyn.
Final verdict:
I have been a big believer in Kugel for a long time and seeing the rapid growth he has taken has been great. There are zero guarantees he will get drafted in the first round and getting taken in the second is a process of him rushing the overall draft process because let’s face it getting into the league is every athlete’s goal. Kugel is someone who I believe is the perfect player to vastly improve his stock with some fantastic workouts and if that’s the case he probably stays in the draft. He is legit but expanding his game from just a pure scorer in a down draft could end up getting him serious money he wouldn’t get if he were to enter now.